In a presentation to the National Association of Real Estate editors in Austin, Texas, last week, Stan Humphries, Zillow.com's chef economist, pointed to 4 myths that he said that consumers are latching on to as they try to make sense out of current market statistics.
1. The housing recession is over. It's not, Humphries said. He estimates that the bottom won't come until the 3rd quarter, at least from a national perspective. Doug Duncan, chef economist for Fannie Mae, also agreed with that estimate.
2. After markets hit bottom, prices will rebound to boom levels. Not going to happen, according to Humphries. He expects the bottom to be a long and flat affair across the markets.
3. The worst of the Foreclosure mess id behind us. More wishful thinking, according to Humphries. He estimates that foreclosures will peak later this year. Realty Trac estimates that foreclosure activity won't stabilize until late 2011.
4. The tax credits saved the housing market. With or without a tax credit, those who bought would have done so anyway, Humphries said. The biggest incentive for home sales were the low prices, low interest rates, and increased lending by FHA (Federal Housing Administration).
It's easy to see why many want to look on the bright side. They want to go on with their lives and their housing plans, and many will.